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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

But the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still